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NI

NELNET INC (NNI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • GAAP EPS of $4.97 and non-GAAP EPS (ex-derivative MTM) of $5.05 materially exceeded consensus $1.91, driven by a $175.0M pre-tax gain from the partial redemption of the ALLO investment and resilient core operations .
  • Revenue* of $0.516B beat the $0.379B consensus, with Loan Servicing and Systems (LSS) revenue up 10.7% y/y to $120.7M on private loan servicing conversions (Discover, SoFi) and cost efficiencies .
  • Solar EPC remains a drag: Q2 net loss of $13.4M and $12.9M of contract loss reserves on remaining legacy projects; management continues to wind down loss-making legacy contracts .
  • Capital return: repurchased 183,554 shares ($21.4M) and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.30; ALLO redemption proceeds ($410.9M) bolster liquidity and optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong consolidated performance aided by ALLO transaction: “We delivered a strong quarter…investing in our key areas: loan servicing, consumer lending, payments, and technology” — Jeff Noordhoek, CEO .
    • LSS operating leverage: revenue $120.7M (+10.7% y/y), segment net income $15.2M (vs. $1.7M y/y), benefiting from private loan servicing volume and technology/automation efficiencies .
    • AGM core loan spread improved; loan and investment NII reached $49.9M (+39% y/y), offsetting FFELP amortization effects .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Solar EPC headwinds: Q2 net loss of $13.4M and $12.9M of contract loss reserves as legacy projects continue to pressure margins .
    • Beneficial interest investments: $5.0M additional allowance due to higher defaults/prepayments in certain securitizations, reducing expected cash flows .
    • Nelnet Bank posted a small net loss (-$0.4M) on higher provision and derivative valuation losses despite improving NIM and portfolio growth .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)*$318.7$380.1$516.1
Primary EPS (Non-GAAP, $)*$1.20$2.39$5.05
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$45.1 $82.6 $181.5
GAAP EPS ($)$1.23 $2.26 $4.97
Net Interest Income after Provision ($USD Millions)$62.8 $67.4 $61.5
Total Other Income ($USD Millions)$266.3 $315.8 $461.2

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global):

MetricQ2 2024 Estimate*Q2 2024 Actual*Q1 2025 Estimate*Q1 2025 Actual*Q2 2025 Estimate*Q2 2025 Actual*
Primary EPS (Non-GAAP, $)$1.33$1.20$1.92$2.39$1.91$5.05
Revenue ($USD Millions)$359.0$318.7$393.0$380.1$379.0$516.1
EPS - # of Estimates111
Revenue - # of Estimates111

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Performance

SegmentQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
LSS Revenue ($USD Millions)$109.1 $120.7 $120.7
ETSP/NBS Revenue ($USD Millions)$116.9 $147.3 $118.2
LSS Net Income After Tax ($USD Millions)$1.7 $14.1 $15.2
ETSP Net Income After Tax ($USD Millions)$19.5 $36.1 $17.9
AGM Net Income After Tax ($USD Millions)$18.5 $22.7 $20.8
Nelnet Bank Net Income After Tax ($USD Millions)-$2.8 $1.5 -$0.4

KPIs (Servicing volumes and borrowers)

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Servicing Volume ($USD Billions)$523.8 $542.3 $516.1
Government ($USD Billions)$489.3 $482.8 $465.7
FFELP ($USD Billions)$14.6 $12.8 $12.4
Private & Consumer ($USD Billions)$19.9 $46.7 $38.0
Total Borrowers (Millions)15.536 15.623 14.523

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ3 2025$0.28 (Q2 declaration) $0.30 Raised
Share repurchase authorization3-year through May 8, 2028New authorization for up to 5M shares OngoingMaintained
Formal revenue/EPS guidanceFY/QtrNone disclosedNone disclosedMaintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available; themes reflect press release and supplemental financials.

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
Loan servicing contract (USDS)Lower per-borrower revenue under USDS; restructuring costs Government servicing revenue down y/y; private servicing rising LSS revenue up; margin improvement via cost management and automation Improving mix and efficiency
Private loan servicing conversionsPipeline (Discover, SoFi) conversions expected Discover/SoFi conversions completed late Q4’24/Q1’25 Benefit realized in LSS revenue and borrowers Conversions accretive
Solar EPCOngoing losses; legacy projects weigh Residential exit; impairments Q2 net loss $13.4M; $12.9M contract loss reserves Headwinds but winding down
Beneficial interests in securitizationsLarge provision/impairment in Q3’24 Additional $5.0M allowance due to defaults/prepayments Continued caution
FFELP portfolio runoff/prepaymentsElevated consolidation runoff earlier; easing since Aug’24 Significant decrease in consolidations since Aug’24 Prepayments consistent with long-term rates Stabilizing
ALLO investmentNo further losses; preferred returns Planned redemption, ~$175M pre-tax gain Closed redemption; $175M gain, ownership to 27% Liquidity and gain realized
Nelnet BankHigher provisions; NIM dynamics NII up; provision lower; derivatives loss Slight net loss; portfolio growth, NIM improved Building scale

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered a strong quarter, driven by continued performance across our core businesses…investing in our key areas: loan servicing, consumer lending, payments, and technology…” — Jeff Noordhoek, CEO .
  • On ALLO: $410.9M cash proceeds; $175.0M pre-tax gain; ownership reduced to 27%; remaining interest accounted under HLBV with carrying value $0 .
  • LSS: Revenue $120.7M with improved margins from technology and automation; servicing $516.1B for 14.5M borrowers .
  • NBS: Revenue $118.2M; continued investments impacting operating margin .

Q&A Highlights

No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available; no Q&A disclosed in the public documents reviewed. Analysis is based on press release and supplemental materials .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: Non-GAAP EPS of $5.05 was a material beat vs $1.91 consensus due to the ALLO gain and better segment performance; consensus coverage was thin (1 estimate), suggesting limited sell-side attention and potential for estimate dispersion going forward (values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Revenue: $516.1M* beat $379.0M* consensus by ~$137M, reflecting consolidation of the ALLO gain within reported other income and increased LSS/ETSP contributions (values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Implication: Sell-side models likely underweighted one-time ALLO gains and improving LSS efficiency; expect upward revisions to FY EPS but caution on sustainability of one-offs (values retrieved from S&P Global).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core operations healthy; LSS and AGM executed well, while NBS growth remains investment-heavy — positive for medium-term margin normalization .
  • The $175M ALLO gain and $410.9M proceeds strengthen liquidity and capital allocation flexibility (buybacks, selective acquisitions) .
  • Solar EPC losses persist but are tied to legacy contracts being wound down; expect ongoing noise but diminishing scope into 2H/2025 .
  • FFELP runoff pressures are moderating as consolidation activity eased since Aug’24, stabilizing spread dynamics for AGM .
  • Nelnet Bank scale-up continues; watch credit provisioning and derivative P&L while NIM trends remain constructive .
  • Near-term trading: Expect positive reaction to headline EPS beat and dividend increase; note one-time nature of ALLO gain.
  • Medium-term thesis: Diversified fee + NII model with improving servicing efficiency and optionality from ALLO proceeds; monitor execution on solar wind-down and private loan servicing growth .